REAKSI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA TERHADAP PEMILU PRESIDEN AMERIKA SERIKAT TAHUN 2020

Authors

  • Setya Ayu Rahmawati Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business. Universitas Negeri Malang, Indonesia
  • Aji Anggoro Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business. Universitas Negeri Malang, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21776/tema.23.1.35-47

Keywords:

The 2020 United States Presidential Election, Abnormal Return, Trading Volume Activity, Event Study

Abstract

The 2020 United States Presidential election is a political event that has received widespread attention worldwide. The United States is one of the countries that can affect the stock market returns and volatility in other countries. The objective of this study was to analyze Indonesia’s capital market reaction to the events of the 2020 United States Presidential Election as measured by comparing the difference in the AAR and ATVA before and after the event. This study was conducted using an event study approach on companies that are included in the IDX80 index from the period of February - July 2020. The purposive sampling method was used with a total sample of 79 companies. This study was used data analysis technique in the form of one sample test with a window period of 7 days. The results of the study showed that: (1) There was no significant difference in the AAR on the stocks included in the IDX80 index before and after the events of the 2020 United States Presidential Election. Whereas (2) there was a significant difference in the ATVA on the stocks included in the IDX80 index before and after the events of the 2020 United States Presidential Election.

References

Aizenman, J., Chinn, M. D., & Ito, H. (2016). Monetary Policy Spillovers and The Trilemma in The New Normal: Periphery Country Sensitivity to Core Country Conditions. Journal of International Money and Finance. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016. 02.008.

Akbar, A. (2020). Investasi di Masa Pandemi. Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Sumber Daya Manusia Kementerian Komunikasi dan Informatika Republik Indonesia. Diakses pada tanggal 15 Maret 2022, https:// balitbangsdm.kominfo.go.id/berita-inve stasi-di-masa-pandemi-19-694.

Alwi, I. Z. (2008). Pasar Modal Teori dan Aplikasi. Yayasan Pancur Siwah.

Amirah S., Hanim K., K., & Masitah E., S. (2019). Election Effect in Malaysian Stock Market: The Case of “Trump Effect”. Malaysian Journal of Science, Health & Technology, 3(1).

Ang, R. (1997). The Intelligent Guide to Indonesian Capital Market. Mediasoft Indonesia.

Ardiansari, A. (2015). Capital Market's Reaction Towards 2014 Working Cabinet Announcement (Indonesian Case Study). Jurnal Dinamika Manajemen, 6(1), 62-72. http://jdm.unnes.ac.id.

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2016). Realisasi Investasi Penanaman Modal Luar Negeri Menurut Negara. Diakses pada tanggal 2 Agustus 2021, https://www.bps.go.id/l inkTabel Statis/view/id/1319.

Beureukat & Andriani, E. Y. (2021). Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Indeks Dow Jones dan Indeks Hang Seng terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Periode 2016-2020. Jurnal Manajemen, 17(1), 1-12.

Boomgaarden, H. G., Vliegenthart, R., & Vreese, C. H. (2012). A Worldwide Presidential Election: The Impact of the Media on Candidate and Campaign Evaluations. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 24(1).

Bungin, B. (2011). Metodologi Penelitian Kuantitatif (Komunikasi, Ekonomi, dan Kebijakan Publik Serta Ilmu-ilmu Sosial Lainnya.

Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. (2017). U.S. Relations With Indonesia Fact Sheets. Diakses pada tanggal 2 Agustus 2021, U.S. Department of State Diplomacy in Action: https://www.state.gov/r/ pa/ei/bgn/2748.html.

Chien, W.-W. (2014). Stock Market, Economic Performance, And Presidential Elections. Journal of Business & Economics Research, 12(2).

Fama, E. F. (1970). Session Topic: Stock Market Price Behavior. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.

Fatmawati, S., & Asri, M. (1999). Pengaruh Stock Split Terhadap Likuiditas Saham Yang Diukur Dengan Besarnya Bid-Ask Spread Di Bursa Efek Jakarta. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, 14(4).

Ferdinand, A. (2006). Metode Penelitian Manajemen: Pedoman Penelitian untuk skripsi, Tesis dan Disertai Ilmu Manajemen. Semarang: Universitas Diponegoro.

Frensidy, B. (2021). Aksi Herding Investor Ritel di Bursa Saham. Diakses pada tanggal 15 Maret 2022 Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia: https://www.feb.ui.ac.id/blog/2021/06/21/budi-frensid y-aksi-herding-investor-ritel-di-bursa-sa ham/.

Hamidi, M. (2008). Analisis Likuiditas Saham Sebelum, Saat dan Sesudah Bencana Banjir Antara Tahun 2007 dan 2008 di Ibu Kota Jakarta (Studi Pada Industri Dasar dan Kimia Di BEI). Undergraduate thesis Universitas Negeri Malang.

Hanif, A. (2020). Pengujian Abnormal Return Sebelum Dan Sesudah Pidato Kemenangan Joe Biden Sebagai Presiden Amerika Terhadap IHSG. Jurnal Akuntansi, 6(2), 203-212. https://financial.ac.id/ind ex.php/financial.

Hartono, J. (2014). Teori Portofolio dan Analisis Investasi. Edisi Kedelapan. Yogyakarta: BPFE.

Herlianto, D. & Hafizh, L. (2020). Pengaruh Indeks Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Dan Straits Times Index Singapore Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Jurnal Inovasi Bisnis dan Manajemen Indonesia, 03(02).

Hoe, S. & Nippani, S. (2017). 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and Stock Markets in China. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(7).

Hung, L.-C. (2013). U.S. Presidential Elections and the Taiwanese Stock Market. Issues & Studies, 49(1), 71-97.

Husnan, S., Hanafi, M. M., & Wibowo, A. (1996). Dampak Pengumuman Laporan Keuangan Terhadap Kegiatan Perdagangan Saham Dan Variabilitas Tingkat Keuntungan. Kelola, 5(11).

Ikhwan, V. (2019). BEI Buat Indeks Baru IDX 80 Untuk Acuan Manajer Investasi. Diakses pada tanggal 20 Agustus 2021, IDX CHANNEL: https://www.idxchannel.c om/idxc-live/video-1/bei-buat-indeks-baru-idx80-untuk-acuan-manajer-invest asi.

Ismawati, F. (2017). Analisis Perbedaan Average Abnormal Return Dan Average Trading Volume Activity Sebelum Dan Setelah Pemilihan Presiden Amerika Serikat Ke 45 Tahun 2016 (Studi Kasus Terhadap Perusahaan Kelompok LQ45 di BEI dan Indeks China A50 di SSE). SKRIPSI. UNIVERSITAS NEGERI SEMARANG.

Jogiyanto. (2003). Teori Portofolio dan Analisis Investasi. edisi ketiga. Yogyakarta: BPFE.

Jogiyanto. (2008). Teori Portofolio dan Analisis Investasi. Edisi Kelima. Yogyakarta: BPFE.

Jogiyanto. (2010). Metodologi Penelitian Bisnis. Edisi Pertama. Yogyakarta: BPFE.

Jogiyanto. (2013). Teori Portofolio dan Analisis Investasi. Edisi ke 8. Yogyakarta: BPFE.

Khanthavit, A. (2021). Reactions of Thailand’s Stock Market to the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Mailangkay, J. (2013). Integrasi Pasar Modal Indonesia Dan Beberapa Bursa di Dunia (Periode Januari 2013 - Maret 2013). Jurnal EMBA, 1(3), 722-731.

May, E. (2017). Smart Traders Not Gamblers+ CD (Cover Baru). Gramedia Pustaka Utama.

Meidawati, N. & Harimawan, M. (2004). Pengaruh Pemilihan Umum Legislatif Indonesia Tahun 2004 Terhadap Return Saham Dan Volume Perdagangan Saham LQ-45 Di PT. Bursa Efek Jakarta (BEJ). Kajian Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 7(1), 89-101.

Nandy, S. & Sussan, F. (2019). Did the US Presidential Election in 2016 have a Short-Term Effect on the Financial Returns of American Depository Receipts from Russia? Review of Integrative Business and Economics Research, 8(3).

Natasya, C. (2021). 'Main' Saham, Baiknya jadi Investor atau Trader Harian?. Diakses pada tanggal 15 Maret 2022, CNBC Indonesia: https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/i nvestment/20210128120000-21-219369/ main-saham-baiknya-jadi-investor-atau-trader-harian.

Nazir, M. S., Younus, H., Kaleem, A., & Anwar, Z. (2014). Impact Of Political Events On Stock Market Returns: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 30(1), 60-78. doi:https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-03-20 13-0011.

Nippani, S. & Arize, A. C. (2005). U.S. Presidential Election Impact On Canadian And Mexico Stock Markets. Journal Of Economics And Finance, 29(2).

Obradović, S., & Tomić, N. (2017). The Effect Of Presidential Election In The USA On Stock Return Flow - A Study Of A Political Event. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 30(1), 112–124. doi:http://dx .doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2017.1305802.

Putri, E. & Nurwulandari, A. (2019). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Modal Bagi Perusahaan Dalam Indeks IDX30 Terhadap Kemenangan Donald Trump Pada Pemilihan Presiden Amerika Serikat. Jurnal Manajemen, 15(2).

Sagita, V. D. (2017). Trump's Elected Shock Effect On Indonesian Stock Market. Journal of Indonesian Applied Economics, 6(1), 71-83.

Samsul, M. (2006). Pasar Modal Dan Manajemen Portofolio.

Sari, N. T., Purnamawati, I. A., & Herawati, N. T. (2017). Analisis Komparatif Saham LQ45 Sebelum Dan Sesudah Pilpres Amerika Serikat 2016. e-Journal S1 Ak Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha Jurusan Akuntansi Program S1, 7(1).

Silaban, D. P. & Sedana, I. P. (2018). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Kemenangan Donald Trump Pada Pilpres 2016 DI Amerika Serikat. Jurnal Buletin Studi Ekonomi, 23(1).

Simamora, S. C. (2021). Pengaruh Data Vaksinasi, Indeks Dow Jones Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Triwulan Satu Tahun 2021. Jurnal Ilmiah M-Progress, 11(2).

Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 355-374.

Suryawijaya, M. A. & Setiawan, F. A. (1998). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Peristiwa Politik Dalam Negeri (Event Study pada Peristiwa 27 Juli 1996). Kelola, 7(18).

Tandelilin, E. (2010). Dasar-Dasar Manajemen Investasi. http://repository.ut.ac.id/382 3/1/EKMA5312-M1. pdf.

Taslim, A. & Wijayanto, A. (2016). Pengaruh Frekuensi Perdagangan Saham, Volume Perdagangan Saham, Kapitalisasi Pasar Dan Jumlah Hari Perdagangan Terhadap Return Saham. Management Analysis Journal, 5(1). http://maj.unnes.ac.id.

Wahyuni, R. & Widiasmara, A. (2017). Dampak Pengumuman Kemenangan Donald Trump Pada Pemilu Presiden Amerika Serikat 2016 Atau “Trump Effect” Terhadap Abnormal Return Saham LQ45 Di BEI. Jurnal Akuntansi, 1(1).

Wulansari, P. (2017). Pengaruh Terpilihnya Donald Trump Menjadi Presiden Amerika Serikat Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Beberapa Negara (IHSG, DJIA, SSE, NIKKEI 225 DAN FTSE 100). Skripsi. Universitas Widya Dharma Klaten.

Yuniati, R. N. (2014). Ramadan Anomaly Effect Pada Jakarta Islamic Index Berdasarkan Perspektif Behavioral Finance Theory. Majalah Ekonomi, 19(1).

Zach, T. (2003). Political Events and the Stock Market: Evidence from Israel. International Journal Of Business, 8(3).

Downloads

Published

2022-05-01

Issue

Section

Artikel